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Publication bias in models

 

 

The research evaluated models that measure the effect of climate change.

A meta-regression analysis has been carried out on the relation between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and changes in global temperature.

The relation is captured by "climate sensitivity," one of the measures of anthropogenic climate change. It measures the response to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations compared to pre-industrial levels.

Estimates of climate sensitivity play a crucial role in evaluating the impacts of climate change. They constitute one of the most important inputs into the computation of the social cost of carbon.

Research finds evidence for publication selection bias. In effect, researchers have a strong upward publication selectivity.

The realistic effect of climate sensitivity, after correction for publication bias, is situated between 1.4 and 2.3 °C.

 

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Havranek, T., Irsova, Z., Janda, K., and Zilberman, D. (2015). "Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon." Energy Economics, 51: 394-406.