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Water in the Po River basin

 

 

Regarding the adaptation to climate changes, research work has been performed models for water disasters. Researchers used models such as input-output and computable general equilibrium.

However, they are mainly compared on theoretical grounds and lack empirical verification. The research work has, therefore, analysed the empirical case of the Po River in Italy.

In particular, it compared three models: two hybrid input-output models and a computable general equilibrium model that has been calibrated for the region. The model had been run, with quantitative data, to foresee to flood scenarios.

The finding shows that the difference in national economic losses, as well as the regional distribution of those losses, may vary by a factor of seven between the three models.

All models indicate that a flood will have a negative impact on the regional economy.

 

Read further

Koks, E. E., Carrera, L., Jonkeren, D., et al. (2015). "Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing Input-Output and Computable General Equilibrium models." Natural Hazards Earth Systems Scientific Discussion, 3, 7053-7088.